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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|